On December 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs of China jointly issued Announcement No. 79 of 2025, announcing that export licenses would be implemented for some steel products starting January 1, 2026.
This announcement instantly stirred up a storm in the steel industry. This not only signifies that China's steel export management has entered the "license era" again after 16 years, but also marks a proactive move by the Chinese steel industry to apply the brakes as export volumes are expected to reach a record high, attempting to use policy tools to break through the dual predicament of "increased volume but decreased prices" and trade frictions.
Chen Leiming, Executive Chairman and Secretary-General of the China Metal Materials Circulation Association, pointed out that in the first half of 2025, although export volume increased by 9.2% year-on-year, the average export price fell by 10.3% year-on-year, and the export value decreased by 2.0% year-on-year. In particular, the export volume of low-value-added steel billets reached three times that of the same period last year, while the price fell by 15.3%. This extensive model of "compensating for price with volume" has not only overdrawn domestic energy and environmental costs but also directly ignited the "powder keg" of international trade frictions. Since 2024, the Chinese steel industry has faced more than 50 anti-dumping cases, a record high. Markets such as Vietnam and India have erected trade barriers, with some tariffs reaching as high as 38.02%.
As the China Iron and Steel Association stated, due to the complexity of the trade chain, companies find it difficult to track product flows, and order urgently needs to be standardized. Against this backdrop, restarting export license management has become a necessary measure to address the challenges.
Compared to 16 years ago, this Announcement No. 79 is not a simple administrative restriction but exhibits strong characteristics of "precise management."
Firstly, it has broad and detailed coverage. The new policy includes 300 customs commodity codes, covering the entire industrial chain from raw materials and primary products such as non-alloy pig iron, to intermediate products such as rectangular cross-section steel billets, and finished steel products such as hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel.
Secondly, it focuses on the "key" of quality management. The announcement explicitly stipulates that applicants for export licenses must provide a "product quality inspection certificate issued by the manufacturer." This provision is considered by the industry to be the "trump card" of this policy. By bringing product quality inspection forward, it not only increases the compliance costs of low-quality, low-priced products but also helps address the difficulty of tracing product distribution at the source, enhancing the credibility of "Made in China." Furthermore, the policy specifically requires recycled steel raw materials to comply with relevant national standards, reflecting a strong emphasis on environmental protection.
In terms of management structure, the new policy adopts a tiered licensing model, ensuring both regulatory uniformity and flexibility in implementation.
The profound significance of this new policy lies not only in alleviating short-term trade frictions but also in a strategic layout focused on the future.
On the one hand, it is a powerful response to the national "dual carbon" goals. 2025 marks the first year the steel industry will be included in the national carbon market, while the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will officially impose carbon tariffs in 2026. At this crucial juncture, forcing companies to reduce exports of high-energy-consuming, low-value-added products through license management is an inevitable path for the industry's green transformation. Leading domestic enterprises have gained a competitive advantage by exporting "green steel," and this model will become the mainstream in the future.
On the other hand, this is also a key move in building a new "dual circulation" development pattern. The China Iron and Steel Association points out that improving export management helps ensure that steel products prioritize domestic demand and guides industrial upgrading. By regulating export order, enterprises are guided to move away from the "price war" that relies on traditional markets and instead focus on emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America, enhancing global competitiveness through technological innovation and brand building.
From January 1, 2026, China's steel industry will officially enter a new phase of "licensed operation." In the short term, this may cause growing pains for enterprises accustomed to "volume-driven" development; however, in the long run, this powerful move will effectively end disorderly competition and propel China from a "major exporter" to a "strong exporter" in the steel industry, establishing itself on the world stage with higher quality, a better structure, and a greener approach.
